Huddle Up During Crypto Winter - Nansen's Weekly Alpha Leak

Huddle Up During Crypto Winter - Nansen's Weekly Alpha Leak

Nansen shares alpha on what Smart Money is doing this winter and how a particular NFT collection is beating all odds

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GM explorers!

Welcome to The Map and the Territory, Nansen’s weekly alpha leak newsletter where we try to cut through the noise – the headlines, the tweets, and the mania – with onchain data in an effort to surface actionable signal.

This week we’re looking at what Smart Money is doing during a nasty downturn and discussing why it’s always best to huddle up during crypto winter.

Let’s dive in!

Smart Money BTFD

A pullback across almost the entirety of the cryptosphere (not to mention traditional markets) that started on Thursday and accelerated into Friday has left many observers fretting about a possible return to the bear market. Indeed, did we ever really leave?

ETH is off double digits from its highs, with the energy and excitement around The Merge looking played out. One symptom of that is aWETH, or Aave Wrapped ETH, near all-time lows in Smart Money holdings, due primarily to Longling Capital winding down the majority of a $200 million position – Smart Money doesn’t want to be leveraged at the moment.

aWETH Smart Money Holdings Dashboard

However, there have been a few dip buyers of note, including some big token buys in the heart of the downturn on Friday. One such purchase came from none other than lootproject.eth, a non-smart money wallet who purchased a million USDC worth of TRIBE.

Lootproject.eth Nansen Porfolio dashboard

TRIBE DAO is mulling unwinding operations and distributing its treasury to TRIBE tokenholders. A couple Twitter searches can rustle up a few best guess estimates as to what that payment might look like, but it’s worth remembering that there are a number of parties who want a slice of that pie, including hack victims associated with Rari before Rari and Fei merged.  

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Essentially, buying TRIBE is a bet that the payout will be greater than the current token price. It’s a gamble, and so far not a bet Smart Money is willing to place:

TRIBE Smart Money Token Holdings

There are only a handful of other bright spots. YFI saw a half million increase in Smart Money holding as Wintermute increased their stake, perhaps in preparation for the forthcoming Yearn Tokenomics overhaul. Machi bought $2 milly worth on APE, but in fairness that’s play money to him. On the whole, there’s not many buys worth reporting – Smart Money is ultimately bunkering for more downside.  

Huddle Up

Seems gloomy and doomy, right? Then, of course, there’s the damn penguins.

Pudgy Penguins NFT God Mode

I mean, what is going on here? The penguins are threatening to overtake Bored Apes in daily volume, which has surged an astounding 800% for the collection. Price isn’t quite following suit – up ‘merely’ 35% – but as of writing the collection is on the verge of breaking 4 ETH per bird.  

Smart Money seems interested in the action too, with two mid-tier buys well above price floor in the past two days:

Pudgy Penguins Individual Transactions Dashboard

I don’t have much to say about this one, aside from dolefully admitting that I might be the only person at Nansen who doesn’t own one of these stupid, fat, flightless birds. My disappointment is immeasurable, and my day is ruined.

Perhaps the safest place to ride out crypto winter is in the huddle?

That’s it for this week, explorers. As always, feel free to reach out with comments, questions, or criticism at


The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.

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