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Nansen recently released a Fresh Wallet Dashboard, once again providing market participants with new ways of navigating the market, especially an incredibly turbulent one. The Fresh Wallet dashboard was designed for users to “explore the unknown”; before the launch of this dashboard, market participants could not understand newly funded wallets clearly as there was an absence of a methodological way to identify and analyze them. This article demonstrates how market participants can benefit from Nansen’s Fresh Wallet Dashboard through three examples.
Table of Contents
- What Are Fresh Wallets Anyway?
- Fresh Wallets Dashboard Explained
- Putting the Nansen Fresh Wallet Dashboard To The Test
When combined with Nansen's existing features, such as Nansen’s Token God and Smart Money dashboards, the new Fresh Wallet update brings new visibility to the broad cryptocurrency markets, enabling investors to surface a more meaningful signal.
What Are Fresh Wallets Anyway?
The Fresh Wallet Dashboard reflects recently created wallets with high-volume activities. Sometimes market participants create new wallets to hide their transaction activity. Some rational reasons include privacy concerns. Fresh Wallets can also be interpreted as wallets created for specific transactions, such as receiving new funds.
So then, why are Fresh Wallets important? What can they tell you about the market?
From an on-chain data perspective, creating a wallet to receive funding can signal the degree of intent, often depending on transaction volume and frequency. One such example will be the tracking of Fresh Wallet as a strategy to analyze the recent unlocking of tokens (such as the example of ORBR in the later section).
The Fresh Wallet Dashboard was designed to summarize potentially valuable information on
- Tokens
The dashboard tracks Token Flows into new wallets. This means market participants can easily identify Tokens being transacted by Fresh Wallets. Examples of Token inflows include buys/sells from decentralized exchanges, withdrawals from exchanges, or funds from other wallets. Simply put, users can track tokens from Wallet A to Wallet B if any wallets were picked up as newly created wallets. Our exchange filter was designed to surface such transactions. The analysis of the Token flows also considers Tornado Cash Withdrawals, Depositors, and Funders. For example, this may include Tokens sent from investor distribution to Fresh Wallets or newly created Fresh Wallets accumulating a specific Token.
- Wallets
The dashboard brings to attention new addresses with high balances or those withsignificant inflows of funding. This feature is handy in identifying new Exchange wallets as Exchanges periodically change their cold wallets. In addition, some market participants may wish to track the latest movements of funds by the Fresh Wallet dashboard to gauge the incoming supply of Tokens onto Exchanges.
- Funders
To get the complete picture of what the activity of Fresh Wallet may signal, market participants could also investigate the Funders channeling the Tokens through. For example, Token Funders can sometimes include Private Investors’ token distributions.
Putting the Nansen Fresh Wallet Dashboard To The Test
Given the current market conditions, notable movements of stablecoins appear to be the recent norm. Therefore, to mitigate the noise, the filter which included stablecoins was switched off for this case study. Additionally, the wallet age filter was set to 7 Days, with Fresh Token flows on CEXes included in this exercise.
The resulting table brings attention to tokens when we cross-check the Number of Fresh Wallets, the Token Inflow value, and the Total Wallet Balance – ORBR, LINK, and MATIC. Logical questions that follow include who are the Funders of these Fresh Wallets? Is Smart Money taking action too?
LINK
At the time of analysis, we observed a slight increase in the LINK token’s price. Looking at Fresh Wallet activity as a reference point, we noticed that four out of the top five Fresh Wallet balances and Token Inflow shows that these wallets did not further on-sell their LINK tokens (the result remained similar for when the CEX filter is turned on or not) in the last 7 Day. This hints at the possible accumulation of LINK tokens. When cross-referring this to the Fresh Wallet table to Smart Money, we noticed a slight increase in the number of Smart Money wallets accumulating, although the total value held by these Smart Money wallets has decreased. Furthermore, the Weekly DEX Trade chart indicates an increase in LINK tokens on DEXes during this period.
MATIC
At the time of writing, there was no significant fluctuation in the price of MATIC. Zooming into the Fresh Wallet activity, particularly the Funders of Fresh Wallets, we noticed that most of the inflow was influenced by CEXes. We derived this interpretation by adjusting the CEX filter. When the CEX filter is turned on, the top non-CEX funding wallet transactions amount to only USD 79,154, involving 217 wallets in the last 7 Days. However, the aggregated Token Inflow into Fresh Wallets involving MATIC during this period was approximately USD 62m. This could signal that the inflows could be CEXes periodically changing their cold wallets. On the other hand, Smart Money wallets have decreased in numbers in the last 7 Days while consolidating their balance of MATIC. More time might be needed to understand how the two indicators may converge.
ORBR
In the last 7 days leading up to 29 November, we saw a decrease in the price of ORBR. During this period, Fresh Wallet inflows were USD 502m while Fresh Wallet balance decreased to USD 467m, indicating that almost 7% of the Fresh Wallet Token inflows further transacted, likely moved onto the exchanges. ORBR has been live for approximately 269 days, which makes it logical to assume that it is an unlock.
We cross-checked our observations against Nansen’s Token God Mode and found that the top transactions for ORBR are from their Treasury. The number of addresses shown on the Top Transaction table matches ORBR’s publicized investors and partners (approximately 15 of them).
When cross-referencing this observation to the Exchange tab on Nansen’s Token God mode, we could confirm that the Tokens were moved onto Exchanges; this can signal a possible increase in sell pressure. In Nansen’s Top Exchanges table for ORBR, we can see that most of the Token supply sits on Gate.io. Given the age of the contract, it is likely that these Tokens that were moved onto Fresh Wallets were unlocked Tokens.
Fresh Wallets Dashboard Explained
I. Fresh Wallets (Overview)
The Fresh Wallet dashboard starts with an aggregated overview of the Number of Fresh Wallets, the amount of inflow, and the Token trending by the number of wallets and by volume in the last 15 Days. Nansen users can apply three different filters to adjust the results of the dashboards: i) whether to show stablecoins, ii) whether to show addresses from Centralized Exchanges (CEXes), and iii) the wallet age. For example, some 460,000 Fresh Wallets were created at the time of writing, involving USD 31.6 billion in the last 15 Days. Additionally, the SHIB token was trending when measured by the number of wallets receiving it, but the SML token was trending when measured by the total volume moved in the last 15 Days.
Fresh Wallets Balances
The Fresh Wallet Balances table aims to surface the Token transactions made by Fresh Wallets so that users can discover new opportunities. The table outlines the number of Fresh Wallets that have received a particular token, the total inflow value denominated in USD, the current total balances of the tokens in the fresh wallet, and the wallet with the maximum balance. This table is handy for users who want to i) find new tokens that have interacted with Fresh Wallets, ii) track flows of existing tokens moving into Fresh Wallets, and iii) identify the Fresh Wallet(s) that have received a significant inflow of a particular Token.
II. Fresh Wallets
The Fresh Wallet table default is organized by the most significant Token balances. It outlines critical information such as the token being held by the wallet, the wallet balance, the Token(s) it previously traded before, and the total inflow into the wallet. This table is handy for those wanting to compile a list of wallets that may be worthy of following. Some of these wallets may exhibit behavior similar to those of Smart Money but may not yet be identified due to how new the wallets are. Additionally, the Fresh Wallet table can be used to identify new Exchange Wallets. For example, in the table above, we identified Binance’s Web3 Industry Recovery Fund wallet.
III. Latest Transfers to Fresh Wallets
The Latest Transfer to Fresh Wallets table shows the latest transfers to Fresh Wallets from other wallets, including CEXes, if the filter is selected. This table was put together so that users can follow any significant withdrawals from Exchanges to Fresh wallets and identify any Funder(s) of interest, along with the Token involved in that transaction. In addition, users can navigate to the “Funder” tab for more insights on Funders. For example, the tables constructed under the Funder tab – Fresh Wallet Funders and Fresh Wallet First ETH Funders, are handy for identifying Sybil Attackers and Airdrop Farmers. Additionally, users can use these Funders-related tables to discover private (token) sale distributions.
Concluding Comments
Nansen users are once again set up to explore the unknown. The development of how Fresh Wallets transact, such as interacting with exchanges and mixers like Tornado Cash, or layering balances into new wallets, makes it even harder to understand Fresh Wallet activities. The main objective of Fresh Wallet dashboards was to enable users to identify relevant wallets as soon as they have made their first transactions. When used alongside the other features on Nansen’s Token God Mode, users are now able to achieve greater visibility over the broad cryptocurrency markets.
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